Focus: Clinton and Sanders and the Quinnipiac Poll - Dec 23, 2015

I am going to compare the attitudes of the Independents, Democrats and Republicans towards Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in the Quinnipiac poll released today. Clinton has a very solid lead among Democrats while Sanders is the choice of Independents who instead dislike Clinton by a large margin. Republican swing voters may lean to vote for Sanders, not for Clinton.

If the primary for President were being held today, 61% of Democrats would vote for Clinton and 30% for Sanders. Among Democrats, Clinton gets 82% favorable opinion and 13% unfavorable; Sanders gets 69% favorable and 8% unfavorable. Only 3% of Democrats have not heard enough about Clinton while 21% have not heard enough about Sanders. Democrats overwhelming think that Clinton has the ‘right experience' compared to Sanders, 82% by 12%. Also they regard Clinton as a 'strong leader' compared to Sanders, 69% to 21%. Moreover 57% of Democrats say that Clinton ‘cares' about their problems, only 34% say the same about Sanders. Being honest and trustworthy is a characteristic won by Sanders over Clinton, but it is not a priority for the Democrats.

59% of Independents have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton while 32% have a favorable opinion of her, with 27% net negative favorability; 7% have not heard enough about her leaving little room for a change. On the contrary, Sanders scores 39% favorable opinion among Independents while 29% is unfavorable, with 10% net positive favorability. A large number of Independents, 31%, have not heard enough about him, leaving Sanders a big margin to improve his standing among them. Independents will play a major role in selecting the next US President. According to Gallup, Independents are now the majority of the electorate at 40%, while Democrats at 30% and Republicans at 27%.

Among Republicans, Clinton gets 87% unfavorable and 10% favorable with 77% net negative favorability; Sanders gets 60% unfavorable and 10% favorable with 50% net negative favorability. 2% of Republicans have not heard enough about Clinton while 29% have not heard enough about Sanders. If the election for President were being held today, Clinton would beat Trump by 47% to 40% while Sanders would beat Trump by a larger margin, 51% to 38%. No statistical difference between Clinton and Sanders in a matchup with Ted Cruz, it would be a tie.

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