Focus: The Mosul Offensive Against Islamic State - Oct 22, 2016

News reports shows that Islamic State is retreating from villages near Mosul but it is digging in the city. It launched waves of suicide bombers, burned sulfur stocks leading to civilian injuries, blowed up the Mosul biggest hotel, used civilians as a human shield and threatened to kill everybody who tried to flee. According to an unconfirmed CNN report Islamic State executed men and boys. The group launched a counterattack in Kirkuk with grenades and suicide bombings to divert attention from their Mosul bastion. These events are troubling signs. It is too early to assess the Mosul offensive but I have strong reservations about the Obama administration anti-terrorism plan and the Clinton plan is even worse. 

Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc) and Turkey finance, arm and maybe provide training and logistical support to the Islamic State and other jihadist groups. There is evidence of this support but no U.S. official publicly acknowledges it. Furthermore it is unthinkable that Islamic State was able to build an army and conquer vast territory in Syria and Iraq in a short period of time without foreign support. Gulf states and Turkey have invested hundreds of millions if not billions to fund and arm jihadi terrorism through Muslim institutions, banks, schools and clandestine operations. The U.S. led coalition’s war on terror will go on and on with no end in sight if the flows of money and weapons to Islamic State from these countries are not stopped. And the costs in terms of lives, displacements, destructions, military expenses will grow proportionally. Gulf states and Turkey should be condemned in international forums for their sponsorship of this barbaric terrorism and warned that they will pay a price for doing so. By the way, Turkey is also bombing and killing the U.S. backed Kurdish forces in Syria which are the ones who fought Islamic State successfully. 

In my opinion it is not possible to defeat and eradicate Islamic State without the full participation of Russia. A joint U.S.- Russia military command was envisioned in the September agreement which called for the establishment of a Joint Implementation Center to coordinate activities against the Islamic State. This will send a signal to the Islamic State and its sponsors that the world is united and determined to fight terrorism with all its capacities. U.S. should drop the demand that Assad is be removed from power before democratic elections are held in Syria because this is the stumbling block impeding the cooperation with Russia. Today Putin’s spokesman reiterated that demands for Assad’s departure are “thoughtless” and Assad must remain in power to prevent the country by falling into the hands of the jihadists. 

A note about the Sirte offensive in Libya that is similar of the Mosul offensive but on a smaller scale. The U.N. designated Libya government, which is located in Tripoli, decided to launch the Sirte offensive against Islamic State without seeking the consent and participation of the Tobruk government, which is the parliament elected by the Libyans. Subsequently the Tobruk government, which has been successful in fighting the jihadists in Benghazi, opposed the Sirte offensive. To this day after a six-month campaign  Islamic State militants are surrounded in a district less than one-kilometre square in Sirte. Sheltering in tunnels and improvised bunkers, Islamic State defends itself with snipers, booby-traps and car bombs. More than 500 pro-government Misrata fighters have been killed. Western special forces teams are advising on the ground and since August U.S. has launched more than 300 airstrikes against the Islamic State in Sirte. Overall this military strategy appears to be weak and costly because the Tobruk government did not participate.