Focus: Clinton, Sanders and the Polls - Mar 25, 2016

The Independents are the largest segment of the American voters. According to the Gallup Historical Trends of Party Affiliation, 38% consider themselves independents while 32% are Democrats and 26% Republicans. Also Democrats and Republicans are not solidly behind their own parties: the Fox News poll shows that 38% of the Democrats and astonishingly 68% of Republicans 'feel betrayed by politicians from their political party'.

Unlike the November elections, primaries privilege the Democrats and Republicans compared to the self-identified Independents and are skewed toward the two established parties. Many states require voters to affiliate with a party in order to take part in presidential primaries and caucuses. The Fox News poll find that only 21% of the Independents vote for the Democratic party and 33% of Independents vote for the Republican party during the primaries. Moreover the presence of the superdelegates at the Democratic Convention strengthen the party establishment offsetting the influence of the grassroot movement. While the Independents play a limited role in the primaries, they will be a key factor in electing the President in November because Democrats and Republicans do not have enough votes. 

Independents are a major political force behind the popularity and success of the Bernie Sanders candidacy. While Clinton so far has the backing of the majority of the Democrats, according to the Quinnipiac poll 46% of Independents and 80% of Republicans say they would never vote for her in the presidential election. In contrast Sanders is opposed by only 19% of Independents and 58% of Republicans. With his campaign Sanders is potentially in a position to build a large coalition of a majority of Independents, Democrats and Republican swing voters. That is the reason why Sanders has a much better chance than Clinton to beat Trump. The Quinnipiac poll shows that in a November matchup Sanders beat Trump 52% to 38% while Clinton beat Trump 46% to 40%.

Below are the latest polls:

POLL: Sanders pulls even with Clinton in a new national poll. Because it’s the economy, stupid. Clinton came out on top on issues of foreign policy while Sanders on domestic issues - The Washington Post

POLL: Words used to describe Clinton and Trump presidencies aren't that great, for Hillary most frequently used word was ‘disaster’ and ‘scared' 'disappointed' rounded out the top five - UPI.com

POLL: Clinton leads Sanders by 6 in Wisconsin - TheHill

POLL: New Pennsylvania poll: Clinton up 25 points over Sanders, Kasich three points behind Trump - PhillyVoice

POLL: Polls give Trump and Clinton huge leads in NY Primary ⋆ Hudson Valley News Network

POLL: California poll: Trump leads GOP; Clinton, Sanders close - POLITICO

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