Focus: U.S. Presidential Elections and the Independents - Oct 20, 2016

According to the post-debate CNN poll 44% of Independents said that Trump won the debate while 40% said that Clinton won. This is opposite to what all registered voters (including Independents, Democrats and Republicans) said. In the same poll 52% all registered voters said that Clinton won the debate while 39% said that Trump won. 

While the vast majority of Democrats and Republicans will not change their mind in the coming weeks about which presidential candidate to vote (unless there are major revelations about Clinton or Trump), many Independents are volatile and still undecided about whom to vote. The post-debate YouGov poll shows that the 61% of voters undecided or selecting third party candidates would choose Trump while only 39% would choose Clinton if they had to choose between the two. Moreover 90% of respondents not voting for or leaning toward Clinton would never vote for Clinton, while 78% of respondents not voting for or leaning toward Trump would never vote for Trump. Independents are a major factor to determine the next U.S. President given the fact that, according to Gallup, they are the largest voting bloc: the percentage of American that identify as Independents are 40%, as Democrats 32% and as Republicans 27%.

In the post debate YouGov poll 48% of all voters nationally vote for Clinton while 44% vote for Trump. In the pre debate Quinnipiac poll 47% of all likely voters vote for Clinton and 40% for Trump while 42% of Independents vote for Trump and 38% for Clinton.

Note: in the YouGov poll, the presidential candidates were virtually tied on most issues discussed in the debate except trade and fairness of U.S. elections. On gun control, 48% say they agree with Clinton versus 47% for Trump. On taxes, 49% pick Clinton against 46% for Trump. On US-Russia relations, Clinton 47%, Trump 46%. On Supreme Court nominations, 48% for Trump and 47% for Clinton. 50% to 47%, more agreed with Trump on immigration. Trump had a more significant lead on trade: 50% to 41%. Similarly, Clinton led by more on the "fairness of U.S. elections" 50% to 39%.