IranWar Weekly

July 2, 2012

Hello All – It seems now that negotiations to resolve the conflicts in/around both Iran and Syria will be put on hold until more “facts on the ground” alter the relative power of the contending forces.  Regarding Iran, the failure of the recent negotiations in Moscow indicates to many analysts that the United States has decided to see if the new round of economic sanctions against Iran and its oil will weaken Iran’s negotiating stance on its nuclear program.  And the lack of progress on Syrian issues at last week’s meeting in Geneva, along with the rejection by the Syrian armed resistance of any negotiated outcome that would not banish the Assad family from power, indicates that fighting will continue to escalate, with potential dangers for the entire region.

In addition to several excellent essays linked in the “perspectives/overviews” sections for both Iran and Syria, I especially recommend the essay by former Iranian nuclear negotiator Hussein Mousavian; the provocative perspective on the sanctions (illegal!) set out by Flyntt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett; an interesting overview on the “great power” politics of Qatar, now becoming an important player in the region for both Iranian and Syrian issues; and an illuminating article by The Guardian’s Simon Tisdall on backroom negotiations between the United States and Russia about regional power.

On Tuesday, July 3, the P5+1 will have a meeting of “technical experts” in Istanbulto explore details of possible negotiating steps re: Iran’s nuclear program.  This meeting was scheduled in part as a way of not having the talks collapse completely after Moscow.  We will be paying close attention not so much to the technical details, but to the meeting’s atmospherics and whether both parties want to continue serious negotiations, or whether talks between the two sides are on hold until after the US November elections.

Finally, I very much appreciate the help that many of you have given in distributing the Iran War Weekly and/or linking it on websites.  Previous “issues” of the IWW can be read at http://warisacrime.org/blog/46383.  If you would like to receive the IWW mailings, please send me an email at fbrodhead@aol.com.

Best wishes,

Frank Brodhead

Concerned Families of Westchester (NY)

IRAN: PERSPECTIVES/OVERVIEWS

How Iran Might See the Threats

By Ray McGovern, Anitwar.com [June 29, 2012]

[FB - Ray McGovern is a former CIA analyst and a founding member of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).]

---- Let me try to put my imagination to work and see if any useful insights can be squeezed out of an attempt to "impersonate" an Iranian Chief of Station. Such a message might read something like this:

Nuclear Issue: What Are the U.S. & Israel Up To?

With half of 2012 behind us and the U.S. presidential election looming in just four months, I will try to be candid and blunt about what I see as the dangers facing the Islamic Republic in the coming months. Following are the key points of our mid-year assessment, more fully developed in the text that follows: (1) -The Islamic Republic is viewed by most Americans as Enemy #1. How best to defeat our "nuclear ambitions" has become the main foreign policy issue in the election campaign for president. This is BIG. [FB – And much more.] http://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2012/06/28/how-iran-might-see-the-threats/

Our obsession with Iran obscures the bigger threat

By Gideon Rachman, Financial Times [June 2012]

---- It is funny what people choose to worry about. The west is obsessed with stopping Iran getting nuclear weapons. By contrast, Pakistan’s nuclear programme is not much discussed. And yet, by any sensible measure, Pakistani nukes are much more worrying. Start with the obvious: Pakistan already has nuclear weapons – probably more than 100 of them – and is thought to be increasing production. Iran has still to assemble a single nuclear weapon. The prospect of an Iranian bomb is said to be unthinkably dangerous because of the country’s connections to terrorist groups, its hostility to the west and Israel, the risk it will spread nuclear technology and the prospect of a regional arms race. And yet, almost all these considerations apply even more forcibly to Pakistan. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8c7bc24c-bc8f-11e1-a111-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1yuIIh9U4

NEGOTIATIONS: MOSCOW AND AFTER

US Hardens Stance In Iran Nuclear Talks

By Laura Rozenand Barbara Slavin, Al-Monitor [June 27, 2012]

---- Iran came to talks in Moscow last week (June 18-19) prepared to discuss stopping enriching uranium to 20% but refused two other conditions that could have led to a partial agreement in the nuclear standoff.  Briefings by diplomats whose countries took part in the talks portrayed the meetings as a "dialogue of the deaf," with the two sides trading widely divergent proposals. However, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator did express willingness to discuss one key step requested by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1): stopping enrichment of uranium to 20% U-235, the isotope that gives uranium its explosive power. The western members of the P5+1 insisted, however, that Iran had to meet all three conditions contained in their proposal: stop 20% enrichment, ship out a stockpile of more than 100 kilograms of 20%-enriched uranium and close Fordo, a fortified enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. That stance has led some P5+1 members to conclude that the United States hardened its position in Moscow compared to two earlier sessions in Baghdad and Istanbul, according to diplomatic briefings shared with Al-Monitor. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/us-hardens-stance-in-iran-nuclea.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

How to Stop the Lose-Lose Game

By Hossein Mousavian, Mohammad Ali Shabani, The National Interest [June 26, 2012]

---- The key questions now are: Will President Obama, if reelected in November, be more flexible? And will Iran muster confidence that Obama can get U.S. political support for any agreement? Chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili went to Moscow resolved to get sanctions gradually lifted and recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium to 3.5 percent. In exchange, he offered a freeze on 20 percent enrichment, confidence-building measures on the 20 percent enriched stockpile, a commitment to cooperate with the IAEA to resolve remaining ambiguities and agreement to address the IAEA’s “possible military dimension” issues. The last point concerns inspection protocols and related matters. However, the P5+1—the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany—offered Jalili essentially nothing Iran wants, so there was no reason for him to budge. The two main factors determining the pace of negotiations are the Iranian economy and the U.S. presidential election. However, Israel’s efforts to block a face-saving solution by threatening to drag the United States into another war in the Middle East should not be ignored. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/stop-playing-lose-lose-game-7118

Also useful – Rick Gladstone, ”Iranian Says Nuclear Talks Have Reached ‘Critical Point,’” New York Times [June 29, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/30/world/middleeast/irans-un-envoy-denouncing-sanctions-says-nuclear-talks-are-at-critical-point.html?_r=1&ref=world

SANCTIONS

U.S.Bets New Oil Sanctions Will Change Iran’s Tune

By Annie Lowrey and David Sanger, New York Times [June 30, 2012]

---- After three and a half years of attempting to halt Iran’s nuclear program with diplomacy, sanctions and sabotage, the Obama administration and its allies are imposing sweeping new sanctions that are meant to cut the country off from the global oil market. On Sunday, the European Union is putting in place a complete embargo of oil imports from Iran, which was the Continent’s sixth-biggest supplier of crude in 2011. Three days ago, the United States imposed a new round of sanctions that could punish any foreign country that buys Iranian oil. However, it has issued six-month exemptions to 20 importers of Iranian oil who have significantly cut their purchases, including China, which has openly opposed the pressure on Iran. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/world/middleeast/new-sanctions-on-iran-aim-at-its-oil-industry.html?hp

US Hawks Aflutter as Clinton Clears China on Iran Oil Sales

By Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service [June 30, 2012]

---- The administration of President Barack Obama is waiving tough financial sanctions that would have taken effect Thursday against both China and Singapore because it said the two countries had made “significant reductions” in their crude oil purchases from Iran. While expected, the waiver for China appears certain to draw harsh complaints from neo-conservatives and other Iran hawks here who note that, after reducing its imports of Iranian oil during the first quarter of this year – possibly as a result of a contract dispute – Chinese imports rose sharply in May to nearly the same level as in May 2011. http://original.antiwar.com/lobe/2012/06/29/us-hawks-aflutter-as-clinton-clears-china-on-iran-oil-sales/

U.S. Sanctions Policy on a Collision Course against Iran; Increasing Tensions with China

By Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, Race for Iran [June 27, 2012]

---- America’s policy on Iran-related secondary sanctions is on a collision course with itself as well as China.  Secondary sanctions violate the United States’ obligations under the World Trade Organization and are, thus, illegal.  If Washington actually imposed secondary sanctions on another state for, say, buying Iranian oil and the sanctioned country took the United States to the WTO’s Dispute Resolution Mechanism, the United States would almost certainly lose the case. Given this reality, the whole edifice of Iran-related secondary sanctions is in reality a house of cards. http://www.raceforiran.com/u-s-sanctions-policy-on-a-collision-course-against-iran-increasing-tensions-with-china

Iranian Perspectives on Sanctions

For Iran, sanctions are a price worth paying to preserve the Islamic republic

By Hadi Kahalzadeh and John Schiemann, The Guardian [UK] [July 1, 2012]

---- The latest wave of sanctions against Iran comes into effect today. Such measures are largely predicated on a "rational actor model" in which the west hopes Iran's leaders will eventually find it in their own interests to give up their nuclear programme. The problem with such a strategy is not that Iran's leaders are irrational but that such a game only works if the west knows how Iran evaluates costs and benefits and the options Iran believes it has available. After the failure of previous sanctions, the west has imposed a new set of much tougher sanctions while Iran has adopted a more assertive stance vis-a-vis the west, stating that it will respond to economic and military threats with its "own threats". Why, then, has Iran failed to respond to international pressure? http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/01/iran-sanctions-price-worth-paying

Also useful – John Glaser, “Iran Calls for Emergency OPEC Meeting in Response to Dip in Oil Prices,” Antiwar.com [June 30, 2012] http://news.antiwar.com/2012/06/30/iran-calls-for-emergency-opec-meeting-in-response-to-dip-in-oil-prices/; and the Associated Press, “Iran: We Will 'Confront' New EU Oil Sanctions,” [July 1, 2012] http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/07/01/world/middleeast/ap-ml-iran-oil.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print

The Oil Markets

Iran's top Asian oil buyers cut imports 18 percent

From Reuters [June 30, 2012]

---- Asia's top buyers of Iranian oil cut imports by more than a quarter of a million barrels per day in the first five months of the year as they prepared for U.S. sanctions that take effect on Thursday and EU curbs that bite from Sunday. Most of Iran's exports flow to Asia and Tehran acknowledged for the first time on Wednesday that its oil exports had fallen sharply, down as much as 30 percent from normal volumes of 2.2 million barrels daily. The International Energy Agency estimates Tehran's exports have fallen even more, and pegs the reduction at 40 percent since the start of the year. http://irdiplomacy.ir/en/news/All/bodyView/1903419/index.html

Also useful– Kevin Drum, “We Could Stop Importing Oil From the Middle East Today if We Wanted To,” Mother Jones [June 29, 2012] http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/06/big-oil-news-isnt-fracking-its-efficiency; and Ewa Krukowska, “Iran Oil Sanctions Risk Biggest OPEC Export Loss Since Libya,” Bloomberg [July 1, 2012] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-30/iran-oil-sanctions-starting-risks-biggest-opec-loss-since-libya.html

MILITARY RUMBLINGS

Iranexpects to equip Gulf ships with missiles soon

By Zahra Hosseinian, Daily Star [Lebanon] [June 29, 2012]

---- Iran expects to equip its ships in the Strait of Hormuz soon with shorter-range missiles, a Revolutionary Guards commander was quoted as saying, in the latest apparent warning to the West not to attack it over its disputed nuclear program. The Islamic Republic has threatened to shut the Strait, the conduit out of the Gulf for 40 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade, if Western sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear works block its own crude exports. http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jun-29/178759-iran-expects-to-equip-gulf-ships-with-missiles-soon.ashx#ixzz1zHQNkbJR

 
Massive US-Israeli Military Drill Set for October

By John Glaser, Antiwar.com [June 25, 2012]

---- Israel and the US are set to hold their largest ever joint military exercise in October, which will include thousands of soldiers and advanced weaponry as well as a simulation of simultaneous fire from Iran and Syria. About 3,000 US soldiers will participate in the highly militarized, highly provocative, highly unnecessary drill, alongside thousands of Israeli troops. Some military analysts have referred the exercise as a “dress rehearsal” for a potential military conflict, emphasizing that it will send a clear – and threatening – message to Iran at a time when the Islamic Republic has been needlessly targeted in a harsh set of economic sanctions for what everyone agrees is currently a civilian nuclear program. http://news.antiwar.com/2012/06/25/massive-us-israeli-military-drill-set-for-october/

MORE ON THE MEK

Undermining Iran:The Menacing Plots of the MKO

By Kourosh Ziabari, Counterpunch [June 25, 2012]

---- The ill-omened, inauspicious plots of the terrorist gang Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization against Iran seem to have no end. The recent letter signed by 44 U.S. Senators addressed to President Obama in which it was implied that time for diplomacy with Iran is over and other options to deal with Iran’s nuclear program should be considered is said to be a magnum opus of MKO. These MKO-associated groups are actively lobbying to convince the Iraqi government, through pressures by Obama administration, to relocate the members of MKO who are now residing in Camp Ashraf, a refugee camp in Iraq’s Diyala province, to another country and provide them with security and shelter. They are afraid that Iraq may hand in the members of the terrorist organization to Iran which unquestionably will be followed by their legal prosecution. http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/06/25/the-menacing-plots-of-the-mko/

THE PERSIAN GULF NATIONS

Is Qatar's Foreign Policy Sustainable?

By Giorgio Cafiero, Foreign Policy in Focus [June 25, 2012]

---- Qatar, home to only 225,000 natives and 1.7 million foreign workers, has emerged as an influential regional actor in recent years. Emir Shaikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani has ruled Qatar since 1995, when he replaced his father in a bloodless palace coup, and has pursued an ambitious foreign policy for his statelet. Natural resource wealth, ownership of Al Jazeera, and a carefully constructed web of foreign alliances have allowed Doha to project itself throughout the Middle East. Doha’s real motives behind its support for military intervention in Libya and Syria are complicated, and observers disagree over Qatar’s actual agenda. http://www.fpif.org/articles/is_qatars_foreign_policy_sustainable

Obama, UAE crown prince discuss disputed islands

From Middle East Online [June 28, 2012]

---- The United States Wednesday backed the United Arab Emirates in its dispute with Iran over three Gulf islands, as President Barack Obama met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. The two leaders met for lunch at the White House and issued a joint call for a peaceful resolution of the status of the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, occupied by the Islamic Republic but claimed by the UAE. A joint US and UAE statement issued after the meeting, which was closed to the press, said Obama and the prince "called for a peaceful resolution of the islands' status." http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=53092

CIVIL WAR/INTERVENTION IN SYRIA?

The lack of any progress towards a ceasefire or negotiations at last week’s meeting in Geneva underscored the seemingly intractable nature of Syria’s insurgency/civil war.  One of the things the negotiations highlighted was the increasing saliency of US-Russian bi-lateral negotiations in moving towards a possible resolution of the Syrian crisis.  And over the past week it has also become increasingly apparent that the fighting in Syria is spilling over into other countries in the region, and involving issues other than simply who will rule in Syria.  These concerns are addressed in the readings linked below.  I especially encourage peace activists to pay close attention to the overview essays by Phyllis Bennis and Judy Bello, which will be very helpful for study and discussion.

Perspectives/Overviews

Syria: No To Intervention, No To Illusions

By Phyllis Bennis, Institute for Policy Studies [June 28, 2012]
---- Fifteen months on, the short Syrian spring of 2011 has long since morphed into a harsh winter of discontent. Syria is close to full-scale civil war. If the conflict escalates further, it will have ramifications far outside the country itself. As former UN Secretary-General and current envoy of both the UN and the Arab League Kofi Annan put it, “'Syria is not Libya, it will not implode, it will explode beyond its borders. Syria is not Libya, it will not implode; it will explode beyond its borders.” Like so many other times before, the human cost of this conflict is incalculably high. It’s not surprising that the normal human reaction is “we’ve got to do something!”   But exactly what any army or air force might do that would actually help the situation isn’t very clear. U.S./NATO military intervention didn’t bring stability, democracy or security to Libya, and it certainly is not going to do so in Syria. http://www.zcommunications.org/syria-no-to-intervention-no-to-illusions-by-phyllis-bennis

Who is Driving the Syrian Uprising?

By Judy Bello, Counterpunch [June 29, 2012[

---- If it sounds like I am supporting the Syrian government, consider the statement “Killing their own people”.  The Imperial US has killed, massacred, exponentially more people.  Somehow, they are never our own, and either it is their own fault, or we are helping them.  When will we see that all people are our own people?  When will we understand that you can’t protect people by killing their relatives and poisoning their wells?  Bringing that day is what we need to do here in the US. Below, I have outlined some facts about the current situation in Syria, and the events leading up to it.  http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/06/29/hands-off-syria/

Also useful – Mairead Maguire, “War Is Not the Answer for Syria,” MR Zine [July 1, 2012] http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2012/maguire280612.html; and Robert Fisk and Tony Jones, “Syria Will Have A Long, Bloody War: An Interview with Robert Fisk,” Australian Broadcasting Corporation [July 2, 2012] http://www.zcommunications.org/syria-will-have-a-long-bloody-war-by-robert-fisk

The Geneva Meeting

Syrian violence escalates as UN prepares for conference

By Ian Black, The Guardian [UK] [June 27, 2012]

---- Evidence gathered by UN investigators in Syria shows human rights violations, including executions "on an alarming scale", according to a new report on a conflict that is spiraling into "deeper and more destructive violence" and in which sectarian motives now predominate. Against a background of escalating bloodshed and global concern, with gunmen killing seven on Wednesday at a pro-regime TV station near Damascus, the foreign ministers of the world's leading powers have been invited to meet in Geneva on Saturday in a desperate attempt to agree a political exit from the impasse. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/27/syrian-violence-escalates-un-conference

Countries Gather in Geneva to Discuss Future of Syria

By Nick Cumming-Bruce, New York Times [June 30, 2012]

---- Representatives of global powers and Middle East countries gathered in Geneva on Saturday to try to find a political solution for ending the violence in Syria and settle differences over the role of President Bashar al-Assad. At a preparatory round of discussions on Friday, Kofi Annan, the United Nations and Arab League special envoy who called the meeting, said he was optimistic of success. But heavy civilian casualties in fighting in Syria on Friday underscored the challenge that he faces in trying to salvage a cease-fire plan agreed to three months ago but never fully put in place while also winning support for a political transition plan on which Russia and China remain at odds with the United States and other Western countries. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/world/middleeast/future-of-syria-on-agenda-as-countries-gather-in-geneva.html?ref=world

Talks Come Up With Plan for Syria, but Not for Assad’s Exit

By Nick Cumming-Bruce and Rod Nordland, New YorkTimes [July 1, 2012]

---- Major world powers on Saturday failed to reach a consensus on calling for the removal of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria from power, agreeing instead on a plan for a political transition that seemed to have little chance of implementation. The meeting of nine nations in Geneva, aimed at finding a way to end the bloodshed in Syria, ended in a now-familiar division, with Russia and China blocking the rest from calling for Mr. Assad’s ouster. Kofi Annan, the United Nations and Arab League mediator who convened the so-called Action Group, tried to put the best possible spin on the agreement, which calls for the formation of a national unity government that would oversee the drafting of a new constitution and elections. The agreement, he said, provided “a perspective for the future that can be shared by all in Syria, a genuinely democratic and pluralistic state.” But the plan appeared to lack support from either side in the conflict.  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/world/middleeast/future-of-syria-on-agenda-as-countries-gather-in-geneva.html?ref=world

Also useful – Tony Karon, “Can the U.S. and Russia Agree on How to End Syria’s War?,” Time [June 27, 2012] http://world.time.com/2012/06/27/can-the-u-s-and-russia-agree-on-how-to-end-syrias-war/?#ixzz1zHbrGE00; and Ian Black and Miriam Elder, “Russia attacks 'meddling' on eve of Syrian crisis talks in Geneva,” The Guardian [UK] [June 28, 2012] http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/28/russia-attacks-meddling-syrian-crisis-talks-geneva/print

The United States and Russia

Why Washington and Moscow want a backroom deal over Syria

By Simon Tisdall, The Guardian [June 28, 2012]

---- Months of futile diplomatic tussling, UN deadlock and finger-pointing over Syria have boiled down to a dramatic, last-ditch effort this weekend to cut a deal between the US and Russia that eases President Bashar al-Assad from office and replaces him with an inclusive, transitional government that can halt the spiral towards all-out civil war. Barack Obama's administration first floated the idea of ditching Assad while simultaneously guaranteeing Russia's interests in Syria more than a month ago. Despite Moscow's rebuffs, the White House has kept at it. Obama spent two hours discussing Syria with a skeptical Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, at this month's G20 summit in Mexico. The scene is set for a Clinton-Lavrov meeting that could still ring the death knell for the Assad regime. Maybe they can pull it off; maybe they cannot. Whatever the outcome, democrats will note that Obama and Putin have something else in common: a deep wariness of the politically unquantifiable Syrian opposition and a pragmatic disinterest in the wishes of the Syrian people. This backroom deal, if it happens, has little to do with building a democratic Syria. It has everything to do with fixing a problem that is upsetting the world order as decreed from Washington and Moscow. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/28/syria-washington-moscow-us-russia

US, Russia Grand Bargain on Syria Stalls, Talks to Continue

By Jason Ditz, Antiwar.com [June 29, 2012]

---- With Western-backed rebels having brought Syria into a state of virtual civil war, the situation could soon dramatically change, as nominally unrelated talks between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov were reportedly seeking  a sort of grand bargain, ensuring Assad’s continued rule as part of a broad deal on how Russia, the US and the EU will dictate the situation across the region. The talks continue, but a deal is apparently not imminent after the St. Petersburg talks ended in failure. The deal was apparently being fueled in part by European fears that the Syrian civil war could cut fuel supplies to the continent, at a time when the Iran sanctions are already driving prices in Europe through the roof. The decision to “choose stability” means that instead of imposing regime change on Syria, the US et al will be imposing Assad on them, whether they want him or not. http://news.antiwar.com/2012/06/29/us-russia-grand-bargain-on-syria-stalls-talks-to-continue/

Also useful – Frank Gardner, “How vital is Syria's Tartus port to Russia?” BBC [June 27, 2012] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18616191

The Role of Iran in Syria

Iranis trying to broker a political solution in Syria

By Mohammad Ataie, The Guardian [UK] [June 26, 2012]

---- Since the Syrian uprising began last year, Iran has stood firmly by Bashar al-Assad. To safeguard its long-time regional ally, Iran gave full political, economic and military backing to the embattled Syrian president. This unwavering support, however, does not mean that Iran believes in a security solution to the crisis in Syria, nor does it mean that it regards such a solution as being in line with its strategic interests in the region. Facing mounting criticism at home and abroad, Iranian leaders have repeatedly defended their Syrian stance by emphasising that Assad is intent on implementing reforms and that his reform plans enjoy the backing of a majority of Syrian people. But, particularly since the recent parliamentary election in Syria, there has been an increasing sense of frustration in Tehran with the sluggish Assad-led political reforms. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/26/iran-political-solution-in-syria

Also useful – John Glaser, “West Rebuffs Iranian Offer to Help Kofi Annan With Peace in Syria,” Antiwar.com [June 27, 2012] http://news.antiwar.com/2012/06/27/west-rebuffs-iranian-offer-to-help-kofi-annan-with-peace-in-syria/

Inside Syria

Syria rebels: 'There is no peace and there is no plan'

By Martin Chulov, The Guardian [UK] [June 30, 2012]

---- Before Saturday's United Nations summit on Syria, some supporters of the country's opposition had their own plan – of sorts – to stop the unfolding catastrophe. It ignored the ongoing high-stakes diplomacy and any other talk of internationally brokered peace. All-out war, said activists, exiles and guerrillas alike, was now the only way to bring an end to the chaos in Syria. Talking had done nothing but allow the Syrian regime to buy time and consolidate, the dissidents said. After almost 16 months' fighting in town squares and on battlefields, it was time to follow through with a momentum that many Syrians in southern Turkey and border areas controlled by rebel forces now feel is with them. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/30/syria-rebels-peace-plan

Syria and Turkey

Syria and the Phantom What Did Turkey Think Syria Would Do?

By Conn Hallinan, Counterpunch [June 27, 2012]

---- What was that Turkish F-4 Phantom II up to when the Syrians shot it down? Ankara said the plane strayed into Syrian airspace, but quickly left and was over international waters when it was attacked, a simple case of carelessness on the part of the Turkish pilot that Syrian paranoia turned deadly. But the Phantom—eyewitnesses told Turkish television that there were two aircraft, but there is no official confirmation of that observation—was hardly on a Sunday outing. According to the Financial Times, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, told the newspaper “the jet was on a test and training mission focused on Turkey’s radar defense, rather than Syria.” Translation: the F-4 was “lighting up” a radar net. It is a common—if dangerous and illegal—tactic that allows one to probe an opponent’s radar system. http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/06/27/syria-and-the-phantom/

Also useful – Juan Cole, “Could Syria-Turkey Conflict Pull NATO In?” Informed Comment [June 26, 2012] http://www.juancole.com/2012/06/could-syria-turkey-conflict-pull-nato-in.html; and M. K. Bhadrakuman, “Syriaputs double whammy on Turkey,” Asia Times [June 26, 2012]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NF26Ak02.html

The Syrian Vortex

Syria crisis: Lebanon sucked into Syria crisis

By Jim Muir,BBC News, [June 29, 2012]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18655845

Palestinians in Syria Are Reluctantly Drawn Into Vortex of Uprising

By Rod Nordland and Dalal Mawad, New YorkTimes [June 30, 2012]

---- The body of a Hamas official was found in his home on Wednesday night, bearing marks of torture. A colonel in the Palestine Liberation Army was sprawled in his car on Tuesday, fatally shot near his home. Three Palestinians were shot down in the alleyways of a refugee camp late last Sunday by a group of unidentified gunmen. None of these deaths happened in the Gaza Strip or the West Bank, but in Syria, where Palestinian refugees are being pulled into that nation’s dark struggle. All are still a mystery, a testament to the uneasy circumstances for the half-million Palestinian refugees caught in an uprising their leaders have desperately tried to sidestep.  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/world/middleeast/palestinians-in-syria-drawn-into-the-violence.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print