Note on Russia and the next Secretary of State - Nov 15, 2016

The next Secretary of State should understand the positive role that Russia is playing not only in the crucial existential fight against terrorism (if Islamic State gets chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, they will use them) but also as a force of peace and stability in the world. Russia has a formidable military which has not being engaged in recent past wars therefore not affected by combat fatigue unlike the U.S military. Russia military should not be underestimated and threatened like Rudy Giuliani did in a recent interview: "Russia thinks it's a military competitor, it really isn’t, it's our unwillingness under Obama to even threaten the use of our military that makes Russia so powerful.” John Bolton expressed the same line: "Well, I think relations are very unsatisfactory, largely due to the behavior of Russia...I think he [Trump] is going to be a strong leader, I think that will have two dramatic impacts on Putin. Number one, it'll make him a lot more hesitant to try and extend Russian influence, and two, what may seem paradoxical but what I think is true, it'll make Putin more inclined to cooperate.” Putin will not desist because Ukraine and Syria are Russia’s strategic and security interests. Plus Russia has the backing of China in international conflicts.

Russia has legitimate interests in Ukraine because of their hystorical relationship and economic cooperation and because there is the presence of a sizeable Russian speaking population in Ukraine: according to 2001 census they are 29.3 percent of the total population. In some Eastern regions they are the majority. In Crimea they are 77 percent. This Russian speaking population has close economic, cultural and family ties with Russia. The European Union proposed to Ukraine the Association Agreement without taking into consideration the Russian interests and rejecting trilateral talks between Ukraine, the EU and Russia.

In Syria, Russia is opposing well-armed jihadist groups who threaten the lives of the people, the fabric of the society and its State institutions and impede a political solution leading to democratic elections. Russia has been accused to prop up the Assad government but the ouster of Assad, which has been demanded by the past US administration, would throw the country in a state of chaos with no central authority and with militias holding the real power.