Michael Collins's blog

Macedonia is about to experience Democracy American Style. The nation’s misfortune is simple. It occupies strategic territory of keen interest to the United States and Russia.

“Russia's Stroitransgaz said on Thursday it will build a gas pipeline across Macedonia, which could eventually be used as part of a route to supply Europe with Russian gas via Turkey”. Reuters, Mar 12

(Image: BUK 312 in Kiev junta terrotiry - Anatoly Sharij)

The shoot down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH 17 came into greater focus with the December 15 YouTube video featuring a former crew member of BUK self-propelled fire installation, number 312 (BUK 312). Ukraine's government and others maintained that the BUK 312 unit shot down MH17 while manned by a resistance crew.   The Obama administration championed that narrative holding both the resistance and Russia responsible for the 298 deaths on July 17. The interview was conducted by investigative journalist Anatoly Sharij and translated by Marina Stewart (see full test in English at end of this article).  

The 23-year-old former BUK 312 crewmember revealed that the missile unit was in fact manned by the Ukraine military. He outlines the missile system's location and how it operated.   The former sergeant also offered analysis and research indicating the very low probability that the 312 crew shot down MH17.

The Kiev government of U.S. puppet Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is about to restart the failed attempt to subdue the southeastern region of the country known as Novorussia according to highly credible sources. (Image)

Colonel Igor Strelkov, a native Russian, helped create and led the Novorussian forces during the critical phases of resistance to the Kiev regime. At the height of his success, he left active command and was replaced by local leaders. As Strelkov sees it:

[An] "Endless flow of [Ukraine government] military columns moves towards Donetsk and Makeevka areas and towards Gorlovka area. Troops are being moved at ever increasing pace.

"At the same time they engage in massive use of heavy MLRS fire, heavy artillery and tactical missiles “Tochka-U” (SS-21 Scarab B) [a tactical ballistic missile - see Ukraine Firing Ballistic Missiles - Obama-Kerry Say Nothing].

"The number of victims among the population during this so-called truce is higher than it was in the period of active hostilities one month ago. Igor Strelkov, Important Statement, 20.10.2014 (click "Show More" for full text)

(10/14) Thousands of rioters demanded special recognition for the Ukraine Insurgent Army, a resistance group that allied with Nazi Germany during World War II. The Ukraine political party, Svoboda, staged the demonstrations.

Svoboda, an extremist right wing party, played an important role in the United States supported transition government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Its influence continues in the current government of President Petro Poroshenko. The United States and European Union have offered across the board praise for Poroshenko's government. (Image)

SpiegelOnline, Mar 17, reported that the German Society for International Cooperation supported Svoboda members of Ukraine's parliament in financial reform efforts.   The society is a non-government organization funded by the German government. The Konrad Adenauer political foundation, tied to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative party, provided legislative training and instruction for Svoboda reported by Spiegel in the same article.

ISIL replaces Russia as the top threat to the United States according to president

"There's a sucker born every minute." President Obama agrees based on his address to the nation. How else can you explain the pathetic national address just delivered?

Tonight's viewing event featured ISIL, the latest excuse for increased military spending. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is also called ISIS and IS. The name really doesn't matter. ISIL is code for angry Muslims who decapitate reporters. ISIL didn't quite pass public relations muster when it stood for angry Muslims who attack Iraqi towns and cities.

Early in the speech, the president said, "we have consistently taken the fight to terrorists who threaten our country." Therefore, we're taking "the fight" to ISIL, right? It's a little more complicated than that.

The United States and European Union created a horror show for millions by enabling acts in support of the extremist government of Ukraine.  The horror comes in the form of Ukraine government attacks on towns and cities in the southeastern regions, attacks initiated by the central government in Kiev. After months of these war crimes, the Kiev government now threatens to stall a massive shipment of urgent humanitarian aid for devastated metropolitan areas of nearly two million people including the large cities of Donetsk (1.0 million) and Lugansk (.5 million). (Image:  Russian aid convoy, RT)

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) identified the emerging humanitarian crisis in mid July and called for immediate aid.  ICRC executive Laurent Corbaz said:

Obama administration lapdog, Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko, threatened the Eastern Ukraine resistance with harsh punishment for defending themselves against his government's military assault on their towns and cities. Reuters reported the following promise of reprisal:

"For every soldier's life, the militants will pay with scores and hundreds of their own. Not a single terrorist will avoid responsibility; each will get what they deserve." Petro Poroshenko, President, Ukraine, Reuters, July 11

Poroshenko and his comrades were reacting to a major resistance victory against Ukraine's regular army. Somewhere between 20 and 40 Ukrainian troops were killed in an attack by resistance forces under the command of Igor Strelkov. Poroshenko failed to note that the missiles he claimed were used against Ukraine regulars are the same types of weapons the Kiev government used against cities and towns in the contested, densely populated Donbass region under attack.

Iran may rescue Iraq from a major threat posed by a Sunni Muslim extremist group formerly aligned with Al Qaeda.

A few days ago, ISIL, a Sunni Muslim group, attacked and captured Iraq's third largest city, Mosul, population 1.8 million, located in Northern Iraq near Iran's border. ISIL stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.  The group was formally expelled from Al-Qaeda in February due its extremism and the fact that it was attacking Al Qaeda forces in Syria, where both groups were attacking Syria and its government. (Image: Fabian Bromann)

The Syrian Arab Army may be on the verge of another set of victories that go far beyond those gained in the summer of 2013 when the Syrian army and Hezbollah took the rebel held city of Qusayr.   The hotly contested battles rage in the major city of Aleppo and the much smaller mountain city of Yabrud. Major gains in either locale would be significant.  Victories in both would raise questions about the various rebel factions and their ability to continue contesting for control of the country.  (Image: Michael Swan)

Syria's commercial center and largest city, Aleppo, was divided at the start of the Syrian conflict in July 2012.  The government lost control of half of the metropolitan area, key towns surrounding the city, and the international airport.

The situation has changed substantially since October 2013.   The Syrian army captured key towns in the countryside surrounding Aleppo, a critical army base, the international airport, and scores of smaller villages.   Government forces continue to take key locations in preparation for a final push to retake the city.  The tactics on both sides are brutal.  Syrian forces drop barrel bombs on Aleppo's rebel strongholds.  Rebels recently executed twenty-one Syrian government sympathizers.   

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government and supporters are charged with a secret gold-for-oil deal with Iran.  The deal, in violation of trade sanctions against Iran, enriched the PM's ministers and other key supporters involved (including the PM's son), according to prosecutors.  The deal also involved misreporting billions of dollars in trade, which, in turn, resulted in Turkey overstating national income and understating its current account deficit.

A more ominous charge focuses on  Erdogan's open support of a wealthy Saudi known for funding al Qaeda and the PM's alleged support of Al Qaeda fighters engaged against the Syrian government.  Just today, we saw this headline: Turkish governor blocks police search on Syria-bound truck reportedly carrying weapons .  Erdogan is a strong supporter of the Syrian rebels, assumed recipients of the weapons. 

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan faces major challenges from the opposition and within his own party, the ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party).  Through his rash actions and compulsive need for control, the PM has paved the road to his political demise.  He may fall as a result of the current scandal or his exit may be somewhat delayed.  In either case, things will be very ugly in Turkey before PM's not so long good-bye is over.  This will be at the expense of the Turkish people, who have done nothing to deserve this. (Image:  Turkish PM Erdogan and former ally, Fethullah Gulen.  WikiCommons)

On December 17, Turkish police and prosecutors brought corruption charges against members of Erdogan's cabinet and some of their family members.  The charges came after a nationwide investigation of political corruption.  As police in Ankara rounded up suspects, the Istanbul police chief refused to arrest 30 of those charged in that city.

Erdogan responded in a manic fit by firing prosecutors and key police investigators involved in the arrests.  Then, the PM went on the attack with a blistering series of invectives aimed at the opposition Republican Peoples Party (CHP), other outsiders, and the U.S. Ambassador.  The death of a key Turkish corruption investigator in Ankara added fuel to speculation on the intensity internal politics surrounding the PM.

Erdogan versus Gulen?  

Syria is a swirling cauldron of battles and tragedies as the thirty-day countdown begins for the January 22, 2013 United States-Russia sponsored peace talks in Montreux, Switzerland. (Image)

Syrian government sources reported between 80 and 100 killed in Adra, an industrial town northwest of Damascus.   Al Qaeda aligned Al Nusra rebels and the Saudi sponsored Islamic front entered the town on December 12 after a series of defeats in the surrounding area.  Reports indicate that Christian and Druze Syrians were singled out.  According to local workers, rebels infiltrated factories then began shooting workers.  Workers staged a protest on December 20 demanding a response by the United Nations and support from the International Labor Organization.

Battles between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and rebels heated up in Aleppo, Syria's largest city, and the mountainous Qalamoun region near the border with Lebanon. 

The U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output from shale formations, the IEA said.   Bloomberg Nov 12

Well, I guess that means every thing will be just fine.  We'll have plenty of cheap fuel to drive gas-guzzlers and lots of walking around money from out new status as oil suppliers to the world.  We might even have enough money to fund health care, Social Security, and fix our collapsing infrastructure.   There's just one catch.  But first, here's some more good news. (Image: Phillip Taylor)

Tim Johnson of McClatchy just wrote an excellent article outlining the geopolitical implications of our new energy wealth: "Rise of Saudi America will alter globe, prolong U.S. superpower role." Nov. 28.   Rather than a slow decline from superpower status, Johnson makes the case that the rise in domestic shale oil production plus sought after U.S. oil industry services and technology will sustain the U.S. as a dominant superpower.

Dependence on Middle East oil will soon be a thing of the past.  Johnson suspects that will make disasters like the Iraq invasion, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria a thing of the past.  The shale oil boom, according to Johnson, has us fat and happy, counting our dollars from energy exports rather than bringing democracy (aka military action) to oil producing countries.   

There's just one catch 

"Diplomatic heavyweights including US Secretary of State John Kerry have flown to Geneva for nuclear talks on Iran, in a sign that there could be an end to a decade-long deadlock. However, Israel has resolved to reject any proposal under discussion." RT, Nov 8

Russian President Vladimir Putin scored a perfecta in September when he offered up two deals the Obama administration couldn't refuse.  The first was chemical weapons disarmament by Syria.  That was followed closely by an opening by Iran's new president to the United States and the West.   Syrian disarmament has gone very well senior foreign ministry officials from Iran, Germany, the UK, and France began talks on Iran's nuclear program. (Image: AndrewDallos))

"This is all wrong, it's not obligatory [to fight the Syrian government].  These are feuding factions and one should not go there. I do not advise one to go there."  Grand Mufti Abdulaziz Al al-Sheikh, Saudi Arabia

After weeks of agitation for increased attacks on the Syrian government and its president, Bashir al-Assad, the Saudis signaled a 180 degree change in policy, based on the mufti's statement.  Fighting with the Syrian rebels is no longer a sacred cause, it is something to be avoided, according to the Kingdom's most important Muslim cleric.

The mufti is not some closet liberal in the Saudi hierarchy.  He's the top religious official in the Kingdom.  His statements are used to interpret legal and religious policies.  The King of Saudi Arabia, who asked him to speak on the Syrian conflict, appoints him. 

The destruction of Syria, in many forms, is proceeding according to plan and on time.  When the Western powers and their pals, the oil oligarchs, target your country, it's time to run just as fast as you can.

I wrote Welcome to the New Syria on August 27, 2012.  Based on known events and outcomes from the UN-NATO military action against Libya, I offered a number of predictions about the governance of the New Syria presuming a victory by Syrian rebels.  At that time, the United States, Turkey, the United Kingdom, France and Gulf oligarchies, Qatar in particular, were full of themselves for their destruction of Libya in the name of democracy and progress.  Given the Libya template, it seemed obvious the following would occur in Syria.

The real story concerns the risks of calamitous military conflict erupting in the Middle East through accident or miscalculation.  More on that shortly but first, here is a quick summary of the credibility of the UN.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon leaks results of report on September 13

Actually, Ki-moon couldn't leak the results of the report at a widely reported private speech on September 13 because, as he said at the time, he hadn't seen it.    But the message was clear.  Syria was the culprit. 

Within the space of two minutes, Ki-moon said that the Syrian regime had committed "many crimes against humanity," that there would ben an accounting "when everything was over," and the inspector's document would be "an overwhelming report."  USA Today and the Washington Post took the words to mean that the UN Secretary General had signaled a negative finding against Syria. (See video of Ki-moon 34:00-37:00)

President Barack Obama spoke as if his political future was on the line Wednesday evening during his address to the nation on the Syria crisis.  He went through the horrors of the Syrian civil war, blamed the Syrian government for the August 21 chemical weapons attack, and provided verifiable (but, as yet, unverified) statements of fact concerning his certainty that the Syrian government initiated the chemical weapons attack.  (Full speech)

Before acknowledging the deal that was done to prevent an attack -- the surrender of chemical weapons to Russia by the Bashar al-Assad government -- the president went through his rationale for planning an attack on Syria and his switch to unilateral action to congressional involvement.  He then explained how he submitted his proposal to Congress.

As we were wondering if the president had already let missiles fly, he announced the plan for Syria to turn their chemical weapons over to Russia.  This move, he argued, was the direct outcome of the threat of military force.    

Leaders of the Democratic Party and their media side kicks are giving President Barack Obama a free ride on his proposal to attack Syria.  Along with the Republican leadership, they're ignoring the strong opposition to any attack by citizens in both parties and independents.

The president's proposed military strike targets a government that has neither attacked nor threatened to attack us or our allies.  Obama did so without any intent to get congressional approval and before any evidence was made public.  He and the Secretary of State announced the attack without regard to clear international law which bars the unprovoked attacks on sovereign nations.

We are told, Trust me.  I've made the decision.

Does this remind you of anyone?  The president is Barack Obama but the words sound just like those of former President George W. Bush before the 2003 Iraq invasion. 

The intelligence assessment sent to Congress by President Obama supports the president's request that Congress authorize military action against Syria.  The assessment consists of a series of assertions about evidence available without any display of that evidence.  The materials are "classified," according to the document.  That means we won't see the evidence.  It also means that Congress can't investigate or debate the quality and reliability of the evidence in public since that would reveal classified information.

Since the chemical incident on August 21, the White House has argued with increasing confidence that the Syrian government was responsible for initiating the attack.

Along with the request, the White House included a document describing the evidence used by the President to reach his conclusion on responsibility for the attack.  The document is titled, U.S. Government Assessment of the Syrian Government’s  Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21, 2013.  This document is the foundation for the president's plan to attack Syria.  As such, it is worth a serious look.

As he prepares to launch cruise missiles against the sovereign state that poses no threat to the United States, President Barack Obama's administration is spouting leaks of major proportion. (Image)

The Associate Press reports that

"… multiple U.S. officials used the phrase "not a slam dunk" to describe the intelligence picture --  a reference to then-CIA Director George Tenet's insistence in 2002 that U.S. intelligence showing Iraq had weapons of mass destruction was a 'slam dunk' -- intelligence that turned out to be wrong."  Associated Press, August 29

President Obama couldn't launch even one cruise missile before multiple U.S. officials began undermining the intelligence report that was to form the basis for confidence in military action against the Syrian government.

On Sunday and Monday, representatives of President Barack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron claimed that it is "too late" to effectively examine the nature and source of the chemical weapons event near Damascus, Syria last Wednesday (August 21).   (Image: Tim Green)

Are these coordinated, self-serving statements by those who want to attack Syrian government without regard to the source of the chemical weapons attack?

The "too late" statements came four and five days after the attack.  The clear implication is that the limit for a chemical weapons investigation is four to five days after the event.

The first clue to believability of the "too late" claim comes from events in Damascus prior to the attack.  On August 18, a team of United Nations chemical weapons inspectors arrived in the capital of Syria to investigate three past incidents that generated accusations of chemical weapons use.

A rush to judgment is a rush to war. 

It's put up or shut up time for President Barack Obama.

Will the president wait for the completion of an objective study to determine the source of a chemical weapons in an attack on a Damascus suburb on August?  Or, will he fix the results, declare the Syrian government guilty, and unleash some form of military attack?   If he chooses the later option, the similarities to the George W. Bush WMD lies will be too close to ignore.

Added to Obama's refusal to get Wall Street crooks prosecuted, his weak efforts on jobs, the NSA spying on all citizens coupled with his outright denial of the effort, Obama's presidency will lack even the most rudimentary form of legitimacy.

Obama has been pressured to attack Syria since the start of the rebellion against the government of Bashar al-Assad began 2011.  Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled the world demanding that "Assad must go." Others in the perpetual war faction have lent their voices to the chorus.

How low will the Western powers stoop in the assault on the people and nation of Syria?    You may be surprised.  Here are three nightmares from the conflict. (Image: Neil Turner)

The United States, United Kingdom, France, Turkey, and the Gulf oligarchies sponsored a rebellion in Syria that chose cities as the primary battleground.  Syrian rebels entered the cities, took over without invitation by the residents, and battled the police and other representatives of the Syrian government.  Nobody expected the government to simply surrender the cities to the rebels.  This often-overlooked fact explains the scale of death and destruction in Syria.

The above listed cast of characters supported or looked the other way as foreign fighters from Al Qaeda in Iraq took on a major combat role. The group, known as Al-Nusra, is credited as the best combat force fighting the Syrian government.   The group slaughters civilians and captured soldiers.  A favorite targets for violence and kidnapping are the minorities of Syrian Christians and Kurds.

The latest news of the effort to depose a government that never attacked the United States and posed no imminent threat has more to do with hypocrisy than death and destruction.   Craven, rapacious greed flowers in the context of a full tilt violence.

U.S. sanctioned Syrian rebel fundraisers "obsessed" with oil over revolution

Sparked by a public transportation fare increase in Sao Paolo a week ago, an estimated one million people showed up in cities across Brazil expressing  discontent with the limited opportunities they face and an indifferent government.

"It's not really about the price anymore," said Camila Sena, an 18-year-old university student at a Wednesday protest in Rio de Janeiro's sister city of Niteroi. "People are so disgusted with the system, so fed up that now we're demanding change."  USA Today, June 20, 2013

Like the protests in Turkey over the past weeks, this is an urban phenomenon dominated by the young.  Many are college educated and under or unemployed.  For most, these are their first political protests.  They chafe at wasted public expenditures.  In Rio, for example, the government spend millions for an international soccer tournament while the people idle away with few if any prospects for meaningful employment or a future.  (Image: Brasilia June 20 Semilla Luz)

The war in Syria went from a seeming quagmire to a conflict that may reach a dramatic climax with the coming battle for Aleppo, a city of nearly three million people that was once the commercial center of the nation.   Political leaders and events in two other cities, Istanbul and London, will play a central role in the outcome of the battle.  (Image)

The Syrian Army finished off final rebel resistance in the city of Qusayr last week fighting alongside the Lebanese group Hezbollah.  As a result, the rebel supply line from Lebanon is shut down and the major road from Damascus to Aleppo via Qusayr is open.  The road will serve the supply line for an attack to end rebel occupation of half of that city.

A victory by the Syrian military in Operation Northern Storm, its name for the Aleppo effort, will leave the rebels with very little in the way of major influence or meaningful territory.  From the start, the rebel strategy focused on urban warfare.  The various groups would have little chance of survival in a conventional battle with the Syrian Army.  With the shelter of cities and towns, the Syrian Army's  advantage vanished allowing the rebels to carry on the conflict and prevail in key areas.

The citizens of this country are in no mood to see U.S. military involvement in Syria.  Of course, it has already begun.  Consultation, secret assistance, and money given for “communications” (which allows other money for weapons) all contribute to the military effort.  For months, Hillary Clinton demanded that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad leave the country.  He hasn’t cooperated.  What does the toughest guy on the block do when you won’t cooperate?